Another investment house cuts BlackBerry Z10 estimates

The BlackBerry Z10

Just a couple of days ago, we told you thatCanaccord Genuity analyst T. Michael Walkley had cut his estimate of first quarter shipments of the BlackBerry Z10 from 1.75 million units to just 300,000 phones. Even though early reports, confirmed by BlackBerry CEO Thorsten Heins, passed along talk of widespread sellouts in the U.K. with the white version all sold, some analysts believe that supplies of the phone were kept low on purpose in order to ensure a sellout. Some U.K. retailers were said to have received only 15 handsets for the launch.

On Friday, analysts from Pacific Crest joined in by slashing their estimate of Z10 shipments for this fiscal year from a range of 3 million to 4 million units, to just 1 million to 1.5 million handsets.  That figure does not represent sales to the end user. The investment house remains bearish on BlackBerry, telling clients that "There is no line of sight to profitability; we remains sellers of [shares in] BlackBerry." Pacific Crest also sees some cannibalization of the BlackBerry Bold 9900/9930 from the Z10.

Some analysts are comparing the sluggish start of the BlackBerry Z10 with the slow start of the Nokia Lumia line when the latter was launched in 2010. Sameer Singh, head analyst at BitChemy Venture, said that BlackBerry should have reduced the price and sold the new model only in emerging markets.

"I wouldn't say I'm surprised by these figures, as I always expected BB10 to fare worse than the Lumia portfolio. For BB10 to have any shot of viability, the devices should have been released at lower price points, targeted at emerging markets."-Sameer Singh, head analyst, BitChemy Venture

Some of the disappointment that the analysts are feeling has to do with the fact that the BlackBerry Z10 has yet to launch in the U.S. No U.S. carrier has released a launch date for the all-touch device, although T-Mobile has said that it wants to be first in the states to offer the phone, and has hinted that it could be launched by the middle of next month. Many U.S.  consumers are said to be waiting for BlackBerry to release the BlackBerry Q10 which is the model equipped with a physical QWERTY keyboard. That device is expected to be available in the U.S. by May or June.